And so we have become Newcastle United.
The torrid summer most fans predicted is still coming true in stages, with the latest being the appointment of 'true gent' Roy Hodgson. Here we have a man who will no doubt bring respectability back to Anfield, the kind of dignity not seen since pre-2007, and the kind of post-match interviews not laden with irony, sarcasm or political intrigue. I like Roy Hodsgon as a man and will sing and cheer his name from the Kop next season, but only because that is what Liverpool fans do - support. As soon as the verse finishes though, daggers will be cast at the Board in retribution for where they have placed us. The problem is not the manager, it is much bigger than that.
With all due respect to Mr Hodgson, he exudes the quality of a Top 10 manager - still one of the best in the country - but not the Top 2 manager that Liverpool fans wanted. I also don't believe that he will have the real determination and 'pull' to keep Steven Gerrard at the club for another 2 seasons. And once the leader has gone, so might the others follow namely Torres, Kuyt and potentially Johnson (given that Masch is almost certain to leave). So we could be left without Champions League football, Gerrard Torres and Mascherano, Jovanovic and Ngog upfront and the kind of desperation etched on Newcastle United faces back in 2004 when Sir Bobby Robson was relieved of his position.
My biggest problem with Hodgson being named manager has very little to do with the man himself. His appointment (no doubt short term as reflected in his previous roles and whilst the club is being sold) is symptomatic of the DIRE state our club is in. Kop Holdings Ltd are shedding 110k per week in interest payments, whose only asset (LFC) maintains an unrealistic valuation by greedy owners wanting to recoup other losses though a huge profit on the international brand of Liverpool Football Club.
The best thing about Hodgson's appointment is that is is very likely a short term option. He had a rolling 12 month contract at Fulham and kept them afloat at very difficult times. His career is littered with stand-in, bridging jobs, and for me that can only mean he is more than happy to help Liverpool out when we need his most. Any new owners are bound to have a new manager in their sights (and indeed may have influenced this 'temporary' move) as has been seen at Chelsea, Manchester City and Real Madrid over the years.
So let's write off next year as a time to blood promising youngsters, play exciting football and perhaps win a cup. Let's focus on the long-term and accept that Roy Hodgson may well be helping Liverpool FC out in more subtle ways that we could ever imagine. Let's not be England and Newcastle and look at panicky short-term fixes - getting rid of the current board is the real job, the big job and the only job I care about.
And it's everything Manchester United have around the corner as well ;)
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Monday, June 14, 2010
Liverpool to risk bankruptcy?
So despite the encouraging rumours, I certainly feel like we've been here before.
Wealthy businessmen and consortium's interested in buying Liverpool but scuppered by valuation disagreements.The latest man interested is apparently the $19billion Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan who clearly earnt his money playing scrabble on his own name. A 'pro-Westerniser' and half-brother of Sheikh Mansour (the Man City owner), Liverpool could yet become part of a family competition.
However it would seem that Tom Hicks and/or George Gillett are holding out for £800 million (although I've often read this figure in dollars which changes the story altogether) which would ultimately pay off the incredible losses that Hicks has made in taking Texas Rangers to near-bankruptcy. But this is where Tom Hicks likes to play poker.
It is in any buyer's interest to drive the price down as low as possible. To do that, you need Liverpool (or at least the ownership of) to be as unstable as possible. Holding back on any agreement and thereby shifting the power to RBS and Wachovia - who certainly talk a big game - pushes KopHoldings ever closer to defaulting and potential bankruptcy, so don't be surprised if you see scenario this play out this summer.
And the same time, they wouldn't want the club so unstable and unattractive as to make future transfers difficult - the likes of Joe Cole or David Silva not wanting to come to a dodgy club. This all results in a game of cat and mouse, of poker bluffing, and even more uncertainty for Liverpool Football Club.
I believe the star names are waiting for this to be played out, but I will not be surprised if Steven Gerrard grows too impatient and so fearful that he follows Mourinho to Madrid and a holiday away from all the vicious rumours and issues he's been subjected to recently. Gerrard has already changed his mind on retiring at 33, following Mourinho's postiive comments about mid-30s Englishmen, plus he gets to reunite with Xavi Alonso and improve his tan.
Which - if Torres makes a similar decision - would mean that Liverpool are truly bankrupt.
Wealthy businessmen and consortium's interested in buying Liverpool but scuppered by valuation disagreements.The latest man interested is apparently the $19billion Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan who clearly earnt his money playing scrabble on his own name. A 'pro-Westerniser' and half-brother of Sheikh Mansour (the Man City owner), Liverpool could yet become part of a family competition.
However it would seem that Tom Hicks and/or George Gillett are holding out for £800 million (although I've often read this figure in dollars which changes the story altogether) which would ultimately pay off the incredible losses that Hicks has made in taking Texas Rangers to near-bankruptcy. But this is where Tom Hicks likes to play poker.
It is in any buyer's interest to drive the price down as low as possible. To do that, you need Liverpool (or at least the ownership of) to be as unstable as possible. Holding back on any agreement and thereby shifting the power to RBS and Wachovia - who certainly talk a big game - pushes KopHoldings ever closer to defaulting and potential bankruptcy, so don't be surprised if you see scenario this play out this summer.
And the same time, they wouldn't want the club so unstable and unattractive as to make future transfers difficult - the likes of Joe Cole or David Silva not wanting to come to a dodgy club. This all results in a game of cat and mouse, of poker bluffing, and even more uncertainty for Liverpool Football Club.
I believe the star names are waiting for this to be played out, but I will not be surprised if Steven Gerrard grows too impatient and so fearful that he follows Mourinho to Madrid and a holiday away from all the vicious rumours and issues he's been subjected to recently. Gerrard has already changed his mind on retiring at 33, following Mourinho's postiive comments about mid-30s Englishmen, plus he gets to reunite with Xavi Alonso and improve his tan.
Which - if Torres makes a similar decision - would mean that Liverpool are truly bankrupt.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Best Wishes Rafa - you served us well
I like Rafa - always have done, always will. But I'm not bothered that he has gone - he was expendable in my opinion.
He bought some fantastic players, changed our Academy structure (though no big results yet) and believed in the Liverpool name. Just like Houllier did. He won some cups, won some big games (inc humbling United) and almost won the title. Just like Houllier did. He also made some big fat errors, glaring mistakes and lost the support of the Kop over recent months. Just like...you guessed it.
He will always be bought a drink by me, i will always want to spend a week learning his methods, but that is because I look up to him. The trouble is though that I'm not sure the players did.
No-one is bigger than Liverpool and though it sounds Real Madrid-ish I only care about the players and how they perform. We do not know if Rafa going will have convinced key players to stay or go - only they can tell us that. But just like Gerrard or Torres or Masch going, Liverpool is bigger than that.
The biggest risk to my happiness is whether Liverpool DO stay bigger than one man, and that is about the Yanks leaving. Everything else pales into comparison when you consider our very existence is in danger.
He bought some fantastic players, changed our Academy structure (though no big results yet) and believed in the Liverpool name. Just like Houllier did. He won some cups, won some big games (inc humbling United) and almost won the title. Just like Houllier did. He also made some big fat errors, glaring mistakes and lost the support of the Kop over recent months. Just like...you guessed it.
He will always be bought a drink by me, i will always want to spend a week learning his methods, but that is because I look up to him. The trouble is though that I'm not sure the players did.
No-one is bigger than Liverpool and though it sounds Real Madrid-ish I only care about the players and how they perform. We do not know if Rafa going will have convinced key players to stay or go - only they can tell us that. But just like Gerrard or Torres or Masch going, Liverpool is bigger than that.
The biggest risk to my happiness is whether Liverpool DO stay bigger than one man, and that is about the Yanks leaving. Everything else pales into comparison when you consider our very existence is in danger.
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
Rafa Benitez sacked?
If rumours are to be believed, then tonight's news about a board meeting to decide Rafa Benitez's future are causing all manner of fury, joy and mixed emotions on Twitter.
My inital thoughts were to be horrified. First of all, it is 'not the Liverpool Way' so sara_not_sarah says. ErinNYC75 says that "Anybody who is happy to see Rafa go is delusional". Meanwhile plenty of people back the idea and happily joke that Sven will be next for his yearly pay deal.
It made me think. First of all about Rafa, secondly about his potential replacements.
Rafa had a terrible first season losing 14 league games, losing to Burnley in the third round of the FA Cup, but succeeding admirably in the European Cup.
Rafa had an ok second season, the high point being the FA Cup win, low points being 25 points behind the title winners, League Cup early exit to Crystal Palace and a pitiful defeat to Benfica in the Euro Cup.
Following that things improved including the close run 2009 league campaign, but faltered terribly in 2010. My point here is that one Euro Cup and one FA Cup doesn't make a hero. However he has definately improved the squad to the point where I wouldn't change 8 players out of 11 for anybody else. He loves Liverpool, he has improved the Academy coaches, and started to blood youngsters and/or make money out of them. It's been a very mixed 6 years with a pretty damn good win ratio.
What of his potential replacement then? Ironic perhaps that Rafa may have indeed hired his (temporary) replacement in Kenny Dalglish. I see the King as the only viable (cheap) option to take over, inspire the troops and regain some faith from the Kop. I simply won't entertain the ideas of Martin O'Neill, Sven or even Sammy Lee; and I very much doubt Roy Hodgson, Fabio Capello or Harry Redknapp would even remotely consider it themselves.
But the only things I care about is the club itself - which will be sorted with the Yanks exit - and the players - which is the innteresting bit.
Torres refused to blatantly commit to Liverpool. Gerrard has refused to blatantly admit that he will stay, instead changing his previous quotes of playing til he was 33, to now wanting to play til 35...interestingly JUST after Mourinho claims to love mid-30s players who are English...
The question for me is not what the fans want - we don't turn up to training every day, nor take the corners, hit the shots or have the be motivated each day. Torres, Gerrard, Kuyt, Carragher, Mascherano etc all do those jobs and need to believe in their boss. Some would say they love Benitez and want him to stay. Some would say that they have lsot faith in the boss and want him to leave. The signals I have seen over the last 6 months is the latter. Carra was furious after Istanbul that he didn't get a wage raise, and won't be too happy that a contract is not on the table given his service. Gerrard loves attacking football and was delirious with confusion over the Torres substitution vs Bham City. Torres credits Benitez a great deal with his progression, but hasn't yet won a trophy in his career.
Somewhere in there I think you have your answer. The players don't want Rafa, and maybe the board have therefore acted. All I know is that 7th is unacceptable for Liverpool WHOEVER is in charge.
My inital thoughts were to be horrified. First of all, it is 'not the Liverpool Way' so sara_not_sarah says. ErinNYC75 says that "Anybody who is happy to see Rafa go is delusional". Meanwhile plenty of people back the idea and happily joke that Sven will be next for his yearly pay deal.
It made me think. First of all about Rafa, secondly about his potential replacements.
Rafa had a terrible first season losing 14 league games, losing to Burnley in the third round of the FA Cup, but succeeding admirably in the European Cup.
Rafa had an ok second season, the high point being the FA Cup win, low points being 25 points behind the title winners, League Cup early exit to Crystal Palace and a pitiful defeat to Benfica in the Euro Cup.
Following that things improved including the close run 2009 league campaign, but faltered terribly in 2010. My point here is that one Euro Cup and one FA Cup doesn't make a hero. However he has definately improved the squad to the point where I wouldn't change 8 players out of 11 for anybody else. He loves Liverpool, he has improved the Academy coaches, and started to blood youngsters and/or make money out of them. It's been a very mixed 6 years with a pretty damn good win ratio.
What of his potential replacement then? Ironic perhaps that Rafa may have indeed hired his (temporary) replacement in Kenny Dalglish. I see the King as the only viable (cheap) option to take over, inspire the troops and regain some faith from the Kop. I simply won't entertain the ideas of Martin O'Neill, Sven or even Sammy Lee; and I very much doubt Roy Hodgson, Fabio Capello or Harry Redknapp would even remotely consider it themselves.
But the only things I care about is the club itself - which will be sorted with the Yanks exit - and the players - which is the innteresting bit.
Torres refused to blatantly commit to Liverpool. Gerrard has refused to blatantly admit that he will stay, instead changing his previous quotes of playing til he was 33, to now wanting to play til 35...interestingly JUST after Mourinho claims to love mid-30s players who are English...
The question for me is not what the fans want - we don't turn up to training every day, nor take the corners, hit the shots or have the be motivated each day. Torres, Gerrard, Kuyt, Carragher, Mascherano etc all do those jobs and need to believe in their boss. Some would say they love Benitez and want him to stay. Some would say that they have lsot faith in the boss and want him to leave. The signals I have seen over the last 6 months is the latter. Carra was furious after Istanbul that he didn't get a wage raise, and won't be too happy that a contract is not on the table given his service. Gerrard loves attacking football and was delirious with confusion over the Torres substitution vs Bham City. Torres credits Benitez a great deal with his progression, but hasn't yet won a trophy in his career.
Somewhere in there I think you have your answer. The players don't want Rafa, and maybe the board have therefore acted. All I know is that 7th is unacceptable for Liverpool WHOEVER is in charge.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Hell Hath no Fury like a Scouser Scorned
The frankly outrageous actions of our previously lauded chairman seem to be what has sent mcdonaldtaf into a rage. His patience has snapped as he sees the Liverpool dying - nay, dead already - before his eyes.
A great deal of Liverpool fans will also agree with his positive action, his defiant plans to create such a commercial and public relations disaster for the owners, that they will have no option but to f**k off. I felt empowered and puffed my chest out in a big way as I read about the plans to stand firm and finally say enough is enough. I too was taken in by the Americans to begin with, taken in by Christian Purslow's charm and 'honesty', and so too it seems by Martin Broughton's apparent grace and dignity.
But I too have nagging doubts. I too am a businessman who would surely hope to conduct myself with better professionalism than these custodians of our great club. But something still doesn't sit right and it's not the humble pie I've been downing since all these revelations started coming to light.
First of all, why on earth would it take until Xmas 2010 to conclude a sale of the business? Of course these things take a while (due diligence, meetings, strategy formation etc) but even Kraft managed a hostile takeover of Cadburys in about 6 months of prominent discussions. Once genuine interest has been registered and a price agreed then its only paperwork left to do. If there IS no genuine interest and no prices agreed, then how can Tom Hicks suggest December may see a conclusion?
Perhaps they are waiting to see how the team fares in the opening weeks of the season, perhaps the interested buyers want to see the debt come down, or new sponsorships agreements in place, perhaps Gerrard and Torres do indeed need to be sold in August and the money reallocated before agreements can proceed? Perhaps >Hicks wants to offload his Texas Rangers first?*
All of the above reasons for delay relate to the final price on the table. Me, you and every other Liverpool fan would happily buy LFC for any price if we had the money, but businessmen aren't like that. Especially when they don't really care that much for the club. But anything that eases the debt raises the price H&G can ask, whilst increasing the likelihood of the sale. It also makes the club more stable and progressive, as doesa good start to the new season.
Which is where I can't (necessarily) condone the almost-miltant action. Don't get me wrong - I want to add my weight to seriously rip the floor from under H&G, but I have niggling doubts. Not renewing season tickets, not buying club merchandise, and creating a hell hole of an atmosphere doesn't help clear the debts, nor create a positive impression for any incoming owners. Unless of course that very message is conveyed from the outset (i.e. "Don't worry Mr Arab/Chinese/Indian man/conglomerate. You can have all our money the day you pick up the keys to Anfield").
Likewise, H&G selling the crown jewels also creates a ridiculous instability and poorer team that would not be attractive to buyers. Broughton's appointment was meant to show a united front and reduce buyers' fears that "all was not well". If we force the price down too much we may end up in technical bankruptcy and owned by none other than RBS and the government!
A calm exterior is paramount to H&G's plan to sell the club for a decent price. Even though part of me wants all hell to break loose.
*Chapter 11 bankruptcy is not quite as bad as it seems. It is a way out of paying off/getting rid of debts by promising to reorganise the company altogether. My experience comes from making a pretty penny on GSI Group who came out considerably stronger on the other side!
A great deal of Liverpool fans will also agree with his positive action, his defiant plans to create such a commercial and public relations disaster for the owners, that they will have no option but to f**k off. I felt empowered and puffed my chest out in a big way as I read about the plans to stand firm and finally say enough is enough. I too was taken in by the Americans to begin with, taken in by Christian Purslow's charm and 'honesty', and so too it seems by Martin Broughton's apparent grace and dignity.
But I too have nagging doubts. I too am a businessman who would surely hope to conduct myself with better professionalism than these custodians of our great club. But something still doesn't sit right and it's not the humble pie I've been downing since all these revelations started coming to light.
First of all, why on earth would it take until Xmas 2010 to conclude a sale of the business? Of course these things take a while (due diligence, meetings, strategy formation etc) but even Kraft managed a hostile takeover of Cadburys in about 6 months of prominent discussions. Once genuine interest has been registered and a price agreed then its only paperwork left to do. If there IS no genuine interest and no prices agreed, then how can Tom Hicks suggest December may see a conclusion?
Perhaps they are waiting to see how the team fares in the opening weeks of the season, perhaps the interested buyers want to see the debt come down, or new sponsorships agreements in place, perhaps Gerrard and Torres do indeed need to be sold in August and the money reallocated before agreements can proceed? Perhaps >Hicks wants to offload his Texas Rangers first?*
All of the above reasons for delay relate to the final price on the table. Me, you and every other Liverpool fan would happily buy LFC for any price if we had the money, but businessmen aren't like that. Especially when they don't really care that much for the club. But anything that eases the debt raises the price H&G can ask, whilst increasing the likelihood of the sale. It also makes the club more stable and progressive, as doesa good start to the new season.
Which is where I can't (necessarily) condone the almost-miltant action. Don't get me wrong - I want to add my weight to seriously rip the floor from under H&G, but I have niggling doubts. Not renewing season tickets, not buying club merchandise, and creating a hell hole of an atmosphere doesn't help clear the debts, nor create a positive impression for any incoming owners. Unless of course that very message is conveyed from the outset (i.e. "Don't worry Mr Arab/Chinese/Indian man/conglomerate. You can have all our money the day you pick up the keys to Anfield").
Likewise, H&G selling the crown jewels also creates a ridiculous instability and poorer team that would not be attractive to buyers. Broughton's appointment was meant to show a united front and reduce buyers' fears that "all was not well". If we force the price down too much we may end up in technical bankruptcy and owned by none other than RBS and the government!
A calm exterior is paramount to H&G's plan to sell the club for a decent price. Even though part of me wants all hell to break loose.
*Chapter 11 bankruptcy is not quite as bad as it seems. It is a way out of paying off/getting rid of debts by promising to reorganise the company altogether. My experience comes from making a pretty penny on GSI Group who came out considerably stronger on the other side!
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Is possession really that important in football?
Fascinating read this: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2010/may/12/the-question-important-possession
Taking studies from key football thinkers, statistics from Premier League, European and International games, this article poses some fantastic insights into what is important in football.
Also take a look at Pep Guardiola's highs and lows: http://www.zonalmarking.net/2010/05/04/how-the-2000s-changed-tactics-1-the-fall-and-rise-of-the-passing-midfielder
Taking studies from key football thinkers, statistics from Premier League, European and International games, this article poses some fantastic insights into what is important in football.
Also take a look at Pep Guardiola's highs and lows: http://www.zonalmarking.net/2010/05/04/how-the-2000s-changed-tactics-1-the-fall-and-rise-of-the-passing-midfielder
The Lowest Point in 15 years
A great deal has happened since I last blogged, and I have been avidly following every twist and turn expecting each one to end in a huge revelation I could offer an opinion on. Instead we find ourselves in a horrible state of limbo.
Owners
As our Player of the Year Pepe Reina neatly put it, a change in ownership is vital to Liverpool's progression. For all of Rafa's ills and annoyances, the element without debate is the uncertainty, the lack of actual investment and vacancy of direction provided by Messrs Gillett and Hicks. In taking on Martin Broughton to sell the club and act as a central figurehead whilst their worlds crumble around them, the club is officially up for sale. And judging by the conversations on the Kop, the 'I don't know' press conferences of Rafa Benitez, and the complete feeling of hopelessness and despair etched on the faces of Carragher, Gerrard and Reina this season - it cannot come too soon.
I will say however, that for all the desire in the world to get new owners, it must be 100% correct as we cannot bear another 3 years like this.
Benitez
I've not been a fan of Rafa these last few weeks - my turning point was the defeat to Reading, on the back of 6 months of bereft confidence that should have been turned around earlier. I've always been happy with his transfers, I've always believed that he loves the club, but have been befuddled by his tactics and man-management.
Right now a change in ownership is far more important as it immediately affects the players, the fans, the manager, the international footballing brand that is Liverpool and the ongoing history of the club. A change in manager only really affects a couple of those factors and he's done *enough* in the last few years to be given another chance within a proper club environment. when you rebuild a house you need to start at the foundations, not at the colour of the front door.
Gerrard
Recently I have heard fans call for Gerrard to be sold - to cash in on a great asset and move on. Those same fans need shooting.
Captain Fantastic, Mister Liverpool and in my opinion the greatest player to wear the red shirt, has not had a good season. He's been in and out of the team due to injury, openly admits it takes him a while to come back to form, and has then been saddled with an unstable and unconfident team within which to find his form. Put simply you do not sell your best players in order to be the best. A strong club would merely give Gerrard a rest and gentle route back into the team whilst replacing him with a player of equal stature. Like Chelsea can do with Ballack/Lampard, Man City with Tevez/Bellamy, even Tottenham have done this season with Defoe/Pavlyuchenko. Knee jerk reactions like these can make you pull a muscle yourself.
Owners
As our Player of the Year Pepe Reina neatly put it, a change in ownership is vital to Liverpool's progression. For all of Rafa's ills and annoyances, the element without debate is the uncertainty, the lack of actual investment and vacancy of direction provided by Messrs Gillett and Hicks. In taking on Martin Broughton to sell the club and act as a central figurehead whilst their worlds crumble around them, the club is officially up for sale. And judging by the conversations on the Kop, the 'I don't know' press conferences of Rafa Benitez, and the complete feeling of hopelessness and despair etched on the faces of Carragher, Gerrard and Reina this season - it cannot come too soon.
I will say however, that for all the desire in the world to get new owners, it must be 100% correct as we cannot bear another 3 years like this.
Benitez
I've not been a fan of Rafa these last few weeks - my turning point was the defeat to Reading, on the back of 6 months of bereft confidence that should have been turned around earlier. I've always been happy with his transfers, I've always believed that he loves the club, but have been befuddled by his tactics and man-management.
Right now a change in ownership is far more important as it immediately affects the players, the fans, the manager, the international footballing brand that is Liverpool and the ongoing history of the club. A change in manager only really affects a couple of those factors and he's done *enough* in the last few years to be given another chance within a proper club environment. when you rebuild a house you need to start at the foundations, not at the colour of the front door.
Gerrard
Recently I have heard fans call for Gerrard to be sold - to cash in on a great asset and move on. Those same fans need shooting.
Captain Fantastic, Mister Liverpool and in my opinion the greatest player to wear the red shirt, has not had a good season. He's been in and out of the team due to injury, openly admits it takes him a while to come back to form, and has then been saddled with an unstable and unconfident team within which to find his form. Put simply you do not sell your best players in order to be the best. A strong club would merely give Gerrard a rest and gentle route back into the team whilst replacing him with a player of equal stature. Like Chelsea can do with Ballack/Lampard, Man City with Tevez/Bellamy, even Tottenham have done this season with Defoe/Pavlyuchenko. Knee jerk reactions like these can make you pull a muscle yourself.
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