Monday, August 02, 2010

When Patience is a Virtue, but Impatience can be part of the plan for Liverpool Fans

Dominating the football news today was the rumoured bid from Kenneth Huang (or a consortium led by) for control of Liverpool FC, talks being conducted apparently direct with RBS.

This news is bound to excite, and certainly fills me with a little more hope than 2 weeks ago (although I've always had a quiet faith that the situation would rectify itself) but I refuse to get carried away. Not because of any particular lack of faith in Gillett & Hicks, nor any doubting of Broughton, but simply because of the way business works. Hence I wanted to explain my own take on how things might transpire - I conduct a lot of contract negotiations in my job, and this experience tells me that it won't go quite as smoothly as the impatient Liverpool fans will want.

In any negotiations there are two sides; although in this case there may be several. Three on the side of Liverpool (RBS, Broughton, Gillett & Hicks) and no doubt several on the bidding side. Broughton himself has stated that he expects an auction process across several parties, and one that *might* finish before Aug 31st, and given his almost impartial position, I would take him at his experienced word. Kenneth Huang has merely kicked the bidding war off - in a game of poker he has simply raised the pot.

George Gillett is rumoured to be trying to introduce a former Syrian international footballer, Yahya Kirdi, and his group to the table as a viable alternative, possibly because they would stand to make more money back on LFC. Irrespective of this though, he is basically standing behind Kirdi and telling him to call the raise, and raise a bit more. And it won't be the last party to play a hand either, as the bidding raises and raises and then suddenly disappears altogether.

The reason I say 'disappears' (which is the moment that all impatient Liverpool fans will panic, hate Gillett & Hicks, call Broughton all the names under the sun, and the papers begin talking about Torres again) is that it is fully PART of the bidding process. For example - let's say Sheikh Khalifa returns to the table with a £550m bid but on the condition that the other parties are ignored and rejected and the deal closes on his terms only. Let's say this bid comes in approx August 25th, just as the other parties' fight looks over. What do Broughton, RBS, Gillett & Hicks do then? There will be no honour in this fight to the death, and I would not be surprised if only Broughton claims the door is already slammed shut. In fact, Huang has actually already tried to pre-empt this desperate situation by apparently stating he wants the deal concluded within 2 weeks or he's out.

Therein lies the position from the point of the LFC fans, and indeed Gillett & Hicks - get the priciest bid, and the richest group with it. However, there are threatening cards to be played by Hodgson, the star players, and most likely Broughton as well - "Take too long and we'll have no star players at the club by September". These threats in themselves would ultimately devalue the club (we'd take lower, 'desperate' fees) which is a situation Gillett & Hicks desperately want to avoid. So don't be surprised if Hodgson, Broughton et al also put pressure on a quick sale.

The buyers need to close the deal ASAP to give the greatest amount of time to Hodgson in the transfer market (though I promise there were be 'conditional offers' made to players right now - indeed I suggest Cole arriving and Torres/Gerrard so far staying are based on this takeover). Huang has already played the PR game and tried to appeal to the powerful Liverpool fans' groups in saying this, but it does not mean he is the best option.

So I fully expect these negotiations to go back and forth til approx August 28th before closure. But you should also trust that Hodgson/Purslow will have talked to each group and gained authority to conduct *conditional* player transfer negotiations so they can be acted upon as soon as possible after August 28th.

And if you need evidence of big consortiums not having their own way and buying clubs at the last minute, you only have to look at our single biggest threat next season, Manchester City in 2008. Their final day purchase of Robinho before the transfer window slammed shut was a pre-condition on the paperwork being concluded on their deal.

So who do Liverpool fans want to see at the club on August 31st? I'd take Fernando Torres right now.

2 comments:

  1. The Great Tosh

    choooo chooooo

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  2. Do you mean that Robinho joining was a condition of the sale of Manchester City or that a marquee signing was a condition of the sale?

    Or that th offer to Robinho/Real Madrid was made on the condition of the purchase being complete?

    It's just that I remember Citeh making quite a few bids on that last day of the transfer window and Robinho being the only one that came off.

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